The Impact of Recent Iran-Israel-US Conflict on China’s Foreign Trade

In the past two months, the continuous military confrontation among Iran, Israel and the United States has brought obvious geopolitical shocks to global trade, and exerted direct and far-reaching impacts on China’s foreign trade industry.

First, shipping and logistics costs rise sharply. The tense situation in the Middle East has raised war risk insurance premiums greatly. Many shipping vessels have to reroute to avoid high-risk sea areas, which lengthens transportation time, causes port congestion, and pushes up ocean freight rates. Chinese exporters face higher logistics costs and delayed delivery schedules, especially for goods exported to the Middle East, Europe and Africa.

Second, energy and raw material prices fluctuate violently. As a major energy importer, China relies heavily on Middle East oil and gas. The conflict triggers oil price surges, driving up costs of production, chemical raw materials, plastics and textiles. Manufacturing export enterprises face rising raw material and production costs, squeezing profit margins seriously.

Third, market order and payment risks increase. Middle East local currencies fluctuate drastically, and some local importers face foreign exchange shortages, resulting in delayed payment and even bad debt risks for Chinese suppliers. Meanwhile, U.S. sanctions on relevant Middle Eastern regions have increased compliance risks for China’s foreign trade enterprises, making trade financing and settlement more cautious.

Fourth, export market structure is forced to adjust. Orders to the Middle East and nearby European regions slow down. Many Chinese foreign trade companies begin to accelerate market diversification, shifting more focus to Southeast Asia, Latin America and RCEP regional markets, while speeding up supply chain layout to avoid single regional risk.

In conclusion, the Iran-Israel-US conflict brings cost pressure, logistics delays and market risks to China’s foreign trade in the short term. In the long run, it also pushes Chinese export enterprises to strengthen risk control, optimize global layout and accelerate market and supply chain diversification.